Christmas Tree Farms
Real Christmas tree farms in the USA · u-cut and pre-cut · est. 2016

Real vs artificial: what the studies actually say

Both camps quote studies at each other every December. Read carefully: the answer depends almost entirely on how many years you reuse the artificial tree and how the real tree is disposed of.

The break-even number

  • A 2018 life-cycle assessment (WAP Sustainability) found an artificial tree breaks even against annual real trees after about 5 years of reuse (precisely 4.7). Disclosure: that study was commissioned by the American Christmas Tree Association, the artificial-tree trade group.
  • Reviews of multiple LCAs put the break-even at 5–10 years; one analysis says 12; an older Montreal study said ~20.
  • TIME's summary of the research: an artificial tree's lifetime footprint is ~18.6 kg CO2e (manufacturing in China is 51–77% of it); a real tree ranges ~5 to 50 kg depending on disposal. Chipping or composting is the low end; landfill (methane) is the high end. Car miles driven to get either tree can swing the result more than the tree itself.

What the LCAs do not capture

  • Real trees grow on farmland kept in trees: about 350 million trees are standing on US farms at any moment, and only ~30 million are cut a year. The Nature Conservancy credits tree farms with habitat, soil and watershed benefits, and 1–3 seedlings are planted per tree cut.
  • Real trees are recyclable through 4,000+ local programs (mulch, fish habitat, dune stabilization: see recycling guide). Artificial trees are typically PVC, effectively non-recyclable, and nearly all eventually go to landfill. About 10 million are bought per year, ~90% shipped from China.
  • A dry real tree is a fire hazard an artificial tree is not; a watered one is hard to ignite. See fire safety.

Honest bottom line

Keep an artificial tree a decade and its footprint is fine. Buy a real tree from a nearby farm and chip it in January and its footprint is fine too. The bad choices are a new artificial tree every 2–3 years, and a real tree sent to landfill.

Sources: ACTA / WAP LCA · RECOUP LCA review · TIME analysis · The Nature Conservancy